The October 2005 issue of HBR has an article called "the hard side of change management". They introduce a new metric called DICE, which stands for "Duration", "Integrity of Performance, "Commitment", and "Effort". In their study they found that by applying simple subjective scores to each of these areas, and then a simple formula to roll up a total score, they have a number which can be used to predict success or failure. They did the study on over 1000 projects and found correlation between these four factors and were unable to add additional factors to produce a better predictor.
Amgen used the tool in 2001 when they made a series of changes. At one point they used this metric on 300 initiatives (yikes!) and reconfigured resources on 200 of them based on the DICE framework.
The authors suggest that it be used in one of three ways: track projects, manage portfolios of projects, and force conversations. All three are really helping the organization decide where to focus time and energy.
The article gives specific guidance on how to evaluate a score for each factor. You can pay for and download the article here from hbr.com.
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